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Suggestion #07:  scrap NOW the Ares-1 and Ares-5 before it's TOO LATE for ESAS

Four years ago, writing on my website and on a space forum, I've already explained the several design flaws and the stellar costs of the ESAS plan and the Ares rockets, while almost no one who agreed with me... now, four years later, the web is FULL of (pretty similar) critics about the ESAS plan, rockets and missions' architectures!

Well, although I not want to repeat here all the critics about the ESAS plan and the Ares rockets, I want to point your attention on the three worst aspects of the Ares rockets, that will push NASA to a "suicide":

big design flaws: dozens mistakes made in the early ESAS "expert" study have already forced NASA to change nearly everything in last 3.5 years, but, the resulted design and missions architectures, still are deeply flawed in many points, so, the Ares-1 can't fly, the Altair design is bad and dangerous, the planned lunar cargo payload is poor, etc. and this is only a small part of the problems that NASA will face, in the next years, following this wrong space-plan, without have (this time) another Wernher von Braun or another John Houbolt to solve all them...

growing delays: the "come back to the Moon" timeline (with its first lunar landing only in 2017) outlined in the [Jan. 2004] Bush's VSE and in the [late 2005] ESAS plan already seemed pessimistic and very slow (two times slower than Apollo, despite today's much better technology, as explained in my, Jan. 2006, article Why to-day's NASA is so slow?) but was nothing compared with today's and future (much worse) scenario of the ESAS plan, since, less than four years after its was published the first manned ISS mission of the Orion (before planned for 2012) is shifted (for now...) to 2017 (or later) and, as a consequence, the first manned lunar landing should shift to 2020-2022 (or later...) and (worse) these (already very long) delays has been accumulated without actually build NOTHING of the ESAS' rockets and vehicles!!! So, just imagine how many (and much longer) delays the ESAS plan could accumulate when further (NEW and REAL) problems will happen (as always with all complex projects) in the next years, when the ESAS hardware will be really built and tested... Probably, we will see "something" flying to the ISS only in 2020 and the first ESAS lunar landing in 2025 or later...

bankrupt costs: all big projects (and, especially, all biggest SPACE programs like Apollo, Space Shuttle and ISS) have faced very high costs, big delays and cost overruns, but the ESAS plan (and, especially, the Ares rockets) seems ready to beat all past/worst records, regarding the too high costs, very long delays and giant cost overruns!!!!! That, since, the early evaluation in 2006 of the ESAS hardware R&D costs (just $5Bn for the Orion, $5Bn for the Ares-1 and $10Bn for the Ares-5) have already grown, in less than four years (and WITHOUT actually build NOTHING of the hardware so far) to an (expected) $40Bn, when the first Ares-1/Orion "should" fly in 2017 (or later) but many other delays and problems in the next 8 years could get these (already very high) costs to grow to 50-60 billion$ or more! So, in 2017 (or later) NASA could have (finally) developed the Orion capsule and the Ares rockets, but, due to its small annual budget, actually NOT have enough money to (also) build, assemble and launch the new vehicles to perform the planned orbital and lunar missions or (maybe) NOT EVEN have enough money to pay the salaries to the engineers and employees quickly going towards something like a sort of "bankruptcy" and will (probably) need a (very urgent) "NASA bailout" to survive!!!

So, my 7th suggestion is: scrap NOW the Ares-1 and Ares-5 before it's TOO LATE for ESAS to avoid a big humiliation when OVER SIX BILLION PEOPLES around the world will see in TV SIX-SEVEN years before the NASA mission the 3-D hi-res video of the China/India/Russia/Europe/SpaceX/Bigelow/Apple/Google/McDonald's/Afghanistan/Tonga's astronauts walking on the Moon to build lunar outposts and (soon) lunar cities with lunar hotels, lunar shops, lunar restaurants... :)

 

b/w

Four years ago, writing on my website and on a space forum, I've already explained the several design flaws and the stellar costs of the ESAS plan and the Ares rockets, while almost no one who agreed with me... now, four years later, the web is FULL of (pretty similar) critics about the ESAS plan, rockets and missions' architectures!

Well, although I not want to repeat here all the critics about the ESAS plan and the Ares rockets, I want to point your attention on the three worst aspects of the Ares rockets, that will push NASA to a "suicide":

big design flaws: dozens mistakes made in the early ESAS "expert" study have already forced NASA to change nearly everything in last 3.5 years, but, the resulted design and missions architectures, still are deeply flawed in many points, so, the Ares-1 can't fly, the Altair design is bad and dangerous, the planned lunar cargo payload is poor, etc. and this is only a small part of the problems that NASA will face, in the next years, following this wrong space-plan, without have (this time) another Wernher von Braun or another John Houbolt to solve all them...

growing delays: the "come back to the Moon" timeline (with its first lunar landing only in 2017) outlined in the [Jan. 2004] Bush's VSE and in the [late 2005] ESAS plan already seemed pessimistic and very slow (two times slower than Apollo, despite today's much better technology, as explained in my, Jan. 2006, article Why to-day's NASA is so slow?) but was nothing compared with today's and future (much worse) scenario of the ESAS plan, since, less than four years after its was published the first manned ISS mission of the Orion (before planned for 2012) is shifted (for now...) to 2017 (or later) and, as a consequence, the first manned lunar landing should shift to 2020-2022 (or later...) and (worse) these (already very long) delays has been accumulated without actually build NOTHING of the ESAS' rockets and vehicles!!! So, just imagine how many (and much longer) delays the ESAS plan could accumulate when further (NEW and REAL) problems will happen (as always with all complex projects) in the next years, when the ESAS hardware will be really built and tested... Probably, we will see "something" flying to the ISS only in 2020 and the first ESAS lunar landing in 2025 or later...

bankrupt costs: all big projects (and, especially, all biggest SPACE programs like Apollo, Space Shuttle and ISS) have faced very high costs, big delays and cost overruns, but the ESAS plan (and, especially, the Ares rockets) seems ready to beat all past/worst records, regarding the too high costs, very long delays and giant cost overruns!!!!! That, since, the early evaluation in 2006 of the ESAS hardware R&D costs (just $5Bn for the Orion, $5Bn for the Ares-1 and $10Bn for the Ares-5) have already grown, in less than four years (and WITHOUT actually build NOTHING of the hardware so far) to an (expected) $40Bn, when the first Ares-1/Orion "should" fly in 2017 (or later) but many other delays and problems in the next 8 years could get these (already very high) costs to grow to 50-60 billion$ or more! So, in 2017 (or later) NASA could have (finally) developed the Orion capsule and the Ares rockets, but, due to its small annual budget, actually NOT have enough money to (also) build, assemble and launch the new vehicles to perform the planned orbital and lunar missions or (maybe) NOT EVEN have enough money to pay the salaries to the engineers and employees quickly going towards something like a sort of "bankruptcy" and will (probably) need a (very urgent) "NASA bailout" to survive!!!

So, my 7th suggestion is: scrap NOW the Ares-1 and Ares-5 before it's TOO LATE for ESAS to avoid a big humiliation when OVER SIX BILLION PEOPLES around the world will see in TV SIX-SEVEN years before the NASA mission the 3-D hi-res video of the China/India/Russia/Europe/SpaceX/Bigelow/Apple/Google/McDonald's/Afghanistan/Tonga's astronauts walking on the Moon to build lunar outposts and (soon) lunar cities with lunar hotels, lunar shops, lunar restaurants... :)

 


                                     


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